Extracts from memorandum for Hitler on the prospects of war with England and France, German-Italian-Japanese common interests, and the assumption of a war against England

BERLIN, 2nd January, 1938.
VERY CONFIDENTIAL PERSONAL ONLY Memo for the Fuehrer
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Deductions on the report "German Embassy London A5522" regarding the future form of Anglo-German relations.
With the realization that Germany will not tie herself to a status quo in Central Europe and that sooner or later a military conflict in Europe is possible, the hope of an agreement will slowly disappear amongst Germanophile British politicians, in so far as they are not merely playing a part that has been given to them. Thus the fateful question arises—Will Germany and England eventually be forced to drift into separate camps and will they march against each other one day. To answer this question one must realize the following:
A change of the status quo in the East in the German sense can only be carried out by force. As long as France knows that England, which so to speak has taken on a guarantee to aid France against Germany, is on her side, France's fighting for her Eastern allies is probable, in any case always possible and thus with it, war between Germany and England. This applies then even if England does not want war. England, believing she must defend her borders on the Rhine would be dragged in automatically by France, in other words, peace or war between England and Germany rests solely in the hands of France, who could, bring about such a war between Germany and England by way of a conflict between Germany and France. It follows therefore that war between Germany and England on account of France can be prevented only if France knows from the start that England's forces would not be sufficient to guarantee their common victory. Such a situation might force England and thereby France to accept a lot of things that a strong Anglo-French Coalition would never tolerate. This position would arise, for instance, if England, through insufficient armament or as a result of threats to her Empire by a superior coalition of powers, (e.g. Germany-Italy-Japan) thereby tying down her military forces in other places, would not be able to assure France of sufficient support in Europe. Regarding the question of the coalition of powers, this depends on further developments, on our policy of alliances and on the future position of British-American relations. It would' be unfavourable to England, if she, not yet sufficiently armed, should stand opposed to the above men-
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tioned coalition by herself. However, this coalition would have to be firmly welded and there must be no doubt in England and France about the fact that Italy and Japan are firmly on our side, and that if necessary the combined forces of the coalition would be employed at one stroke. Italy's and Japan's interest in a strong Germany is as great as ours in a strong Italy and Japan.
The existence of the new Germany has been of great advantage to both of them in their efforts to expand during the last few years. With reference to this and to common aims in the future it should be possible to get these two powers to announce their solidarity with us at the right time. Given such a situation it may be possible that England would prevent France from interfering in the event of a war by Germany against one of France's allies in the East, so as to localize the conflict and that England should not be forced through France's interfering to have to fight for her Empire under unfavourable conditions, possibly in three places, in the Far East, in the Mediteranean and in Europe. Even if it should mean a considerable strengthening of Germany, England, in my opinion, would not risk fighting for her Empire under unfavourable conditions for the sake of a local Central European conflict. In such a case France, without England, would hardly have the nerve to run against the German fortifications in the West by herself. The deciding factor which appears to me in this connection is the speed with which such a Central European war could be victoriously decided. In the event of a lightning success I am convinced that the West would not interfere. A lengthy campaign, however, might give our enemies the idea that they had over-rated Germany's strength and with this the moment of intervention by the Western powers would have come decidedly near.
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In conclusion I should like to summarize my ideas with the following headings:
1. England is behindhand with her armaments and therefore is playing for time.
2. England believes that in a competition with Germany time is on English side—utilization of her greater economic possibilities for her armaments—time for the èxtension of her treaties (e.g. U. S. A.)
3. The Halifax visit is therefore to be regarded as a reconnaissance and screening movement, also Germanophiles in England are for the most part only playing the parts they have been given.
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4. In my opinion England and her Prime Minister do not see in Halifax's visit the possibility of the basis of an agreement with Germany—they have as much faith in National Socialist Germany as we have in England—therefore they fear one day they may be forced by a strong Germany to a solution which is not agreeable to them—to counter this England is preparing herself in any case militarily and politically for war with Germany.
5. Therefore conclusions to be drawn by us:
i. Outwardly further understanding with England in regard to the protection of the interests of our friends.
ii. Formation under great secrecy but with wholehearted tenacity of a coalition against England—i.e. a tightening of our friendship with Italy and Japan—also the winning over of all nations whose interests conform with ours directly or indirectly —close and confidential co-operation of the diplomats of the three great powers towards this purpose. Only in this way can we confront England be it in a settlement or in war. England is going to be a hard and astute opponent in this game of diplomacy.
6. The particular question whether in the event of a war by Germany in Central Europe, France and thereby England would interfere depends on the circumstances and the time at which such a war commences and ceases and on military considerations which cannot be gone into here. I should like to give the Fuehrer some of these points of view verbally.
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